>> neil young! >> neil young. we start with neil young. >> awesome. >> just after labor day with him on that. >> musical genius. >> try to be active on facebook and keep myself generally out of trouble. we missed a great opportunity earlier. you said uglier than what? couldn't respond. well, how about egglier than a frat house bathroom on new year's eve? >> bingo! >> why. >> maybe the next morning. keep on rocking in the free world, dude. >> dan rather, thank you. >> thank you. >> come on back. join us tomorrow, everybody. "squawk on the street" begins right now. ♪ >> good tuesday morning. welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm jim quintanilla la with jim cramer this morning. the dollar resumes falling. futures to the upside right now. europe's green. pmis there hit a seven-month

high and oil's worth watching on a cautious note. best buy surging. how's the turnaround plan looking now? oil pulling back. why goldman sees little upward price action for about a year. toll brothers on the rise. what their report tells us about the housing market. but first up, the big surprise in best buy's quarterly results. up point 8. guidance goes higher for the coming year. >> it's funny. a lot of people were expecting this would be a story about gaming, maybe weaker and cell phones maybe weaker. guess what. they were weaker but appliances, which are on fire as we know from home depot last week, the appliance numbers extraordinary. very high single digits and then something those of us who remember the old days, the housing days of best buy before the crisis, home theaters. people used to buy home theaters as part of the investment in the

home. it's back! home theaters very strong. home theaters, appliances, but the end of it is wow. there's a spend that's going on for the home that we were told of home depot hearing of the chief merchandising officer of best buy saying look where people spending it. spending it to make the house worth more money. >> we saw cautious commentary last week about a maturation in the 4k cycle. clearly not happening? >> kind of irrelevant. i mean, i think that when we go off -- yeah. certain things happen. i just want to come on from where i was. i would have liked to come on home depot because they explained, listen, there's 4.3 months of inventory in housing. okay? typically 6 months. if we get -- if we had the household formation of 2000s, we

would have 4.3 million households. this is a new response to the fact that people are making their homes even more -- worth more because they sense it's going up in value. this is quite different from even two years ago. that's when people were like betting that best buy would be awful. they bought back a lot of stock and they had tremendous faith. it is not a cell phone play. it's not a wearable play. it's an appliance play. boy, people are spending on appliances like there's no tomorrow. >> short interest in the name gone 2x in the past several years. >> that article, sometimes tough. >> talking about selling on the port of jolie and arguing investors are less certain. >> i care more about angelina i don'tly jolie. when i see this strength, i say to myself is, all right, the fed if janet yellen were to read through best buy, she comments on the bio techs, anything's

possible. she would say home theater sales are strong. we have got to raise -- i mean, because that's just like this kind of -- well, you know what? consumer's feeling too good! at the sam time, i think it's a reversion like retailers. reversion to the old days. non-promotional, consumer feeling little bit better. i think job growth where people feel better about their job. home value appreciation. and i think it's a sense that people just are looking too much at cell phone. and not looking at the other things that are going into a house. jcpenney call, ellison, is he fabulous? talking about the need to have more home spend in jcpenney stores because appliances are giving them eight times the margin of what was in the space. what was in the space probably, i don't know, boxer shorts. >> shower. >> it is really clear that the smart merchants have caught on to this theme. jcpenney is very smart.

it ain't the old jcpenney and ain't the old best buy. i'm impressed. people short best buy say it can't be maintained but home depot saying to 2018. could be a long and nasty short. >> queue thomas hops. >> indeed. >> do you believe that one of the surprises of the quarter in general has been the lack of promotion or maybe an easing of promotion? >> there was a moment in the fabulous urban outfitters call, the stock was up. they liked it. where hain, who's a great merchant, it's regular. regular prices. i almost fell out of my chair. regular. when was the last time you had regular pricing? i mean, other than target, i don't know, maybe the weather was bad on target's side of the street, not clear to me. other than target, i heard a lot about non-promotional. wait until pvh tomorrow. i wonder if they don't say non-promotional. you listen to the 0 calls and what did well?

what was like denim. denim is huge. denim's back and bigger than ever! appliance, denim, all these things are -- remember the mall? pink. have you been -- i don't to -- >> no. the answer to that question is no. >> i see people at pink. the register is ringing at pink. pink. bath and body works which did quite well. >> yeah. >> best buy call. i think people start questioning their overall negativity and then go to zoe's kitchen, a chain that was doing quite well and say, wait a second. they're not going out for food. i have general mills on tonight. ken powell. people are staying home. >> well, because it's more expensive to eat out than relative to groceries. >> at the margin. the labor costs are up. >> wages. >> they got too expensive. too expensive to go out versus stay in. except for if you want to do something for the home and wait

a second. the large ticket items at home depot, the plus 900, large ticket items, they're not feeling bad. they're just spending their money more wisely. putting investments in. ellison, i urge everyone to read the jcpenney call saying they're spending on furniture. very interesting. let's seema dress firm with a bid and people want the lie down on the mattress before they buy it. seeing furniture, you want to feel what it looks like. ethan allen. near 52-week high. versus wayfair, the online furniture didn't do as well. you come back to people saying, i feel great about my home. i don't need to have a fancy dinner. >> yeah. i think that's really -- speaks to collective zeitgeist right now. goldman's reiterating the forecast through next summer. and the view that the oil price

recovery is fragile. they say, quote, while discussions of an opec freeze and a weakening dollar have been catalysts for the sharp reversal of oil prices this month, we believe neither will be sufficient to support prices much further. essentially saying any cuts can be made up for very quickly. >> you know, what happened again, last week, we heard that there was definitely going to be a russia/saudi agreement. okay? what's happening is people have to recognize this. you hear there's an agreement, don't believe it. 's in everybody's interest to pump more. saudis, the possibility, they don't talk about -- they talk about nigeria and iran. the capability of the iraq, iran, libya. we have to recognize is that capability of the permia. contra resources did a deal of ac acreage of texas and mid land and you can make a fortune. go back to see sheffield in

pioneer. prices through what the saudis make and existing pipe and get it out there to refine it. we're seeing the glut continues and we get to 48, 50. the oil companies in our country sell futures and knock it down to 39, 40, where everyone shuts down and saying we won't sell our oil there. meantime, saudis keep pumping. they don't want to lose the market share. it is -- it's -- i thought the goldman call was good. after goldman be erratic, too negative, too positive. this is good. this is the heidi thing for them. >> too cold, too hot, just right. >> yeah, yeah. >> worst-case, bear case $20. >> that was the porridge too hot on that call. this is a smart call. >> what about the oxi ceo saying it's not profitable until 80? does that still exist? >> i can show you north dakota regions where they just -- you could say it's 60, 70.

i have outside of denver, may be 70, 80. go for running out what was cheap and going higher. all the good stuff is done. perm iran is just the way it was in "giant." when they filmed in it martha, i don't know if you've been there. gorgeous sunset. >> one of the best movie posters ever made. >> yeah. >> toll brothers posting a profit of 61 cents a share matching estimates. revenue above forecast up more than 23%. sales and prices increased from a year earlier. backlog's up 19. average selling price now 8.42 from 7.24 last year. >> yeah. toll reports, this is something for people at home to recognize. toll reports and immediately the story line is they missed. i go over. i know bob toll from the old days because i'm from philadelphia. there's like 47 loins and 46 of them are good and one to pull which is that the average selling price 831,000 versus

841,000. they bought 2% of the shares back. the net signed contracts rose 24%. net income up. units up 24%. how can be bad? this is a good quarter from a company of a stock languished and referendum on the prices of brooklyn prices can't be maintained. >> some of the urban properties but a smaller part of the business saw number of units softer than expected. >> well, you know, i mean, how much will you pay for a three bedroom overlooking the brooklyn bridge? i'm part of that conservancy. it is nice. a dynamite view. a certain point, carl, you know, i can -- i watch netflix instead of the view. sit there and, like, that sunset. doesn't require 4 million. >> net-net you like the quarter? you like toll? >> yes. i do. but now someone's going to say, you idiot. janet yellen speaks friday. forget what bob toll says. i don't know. those trading, they're going to -- janet yellen says rate

tightening and why did kramer that moron talk about how good toll did? they're concerned about interest rates. >> by the way, a programming note, toll brothers ceo will be a guest on "power lunch" today. that's, of course, 1:00 p.m. eastern time. >> he's very straight shooter. when we come back, big winner at the rio olympics, maya dirado, conor dwyer join us this morning. square's rebound continues. we have an upgrade today. we'll look at whenat's ahead fo the mobile payments company. we have now 31 sessions without a 1% move on the s&p. more "squawk on the street" from post 9 in a minute. this just got interesting. why pause to take a pill? or stop to find a bathroom? cialis for daily use is approved to treat both erectile dysfunction and the urinary symptoms of bph,

like needing to go frequently, day or night. tell your doctor about all your medical conditions and medicines, and ask if your heart is healthy enough for sex do not take cialis if you take nitrates for chest pain, or adempas for pulmonary hypertension, as it may cause an unsafe drop in blood pressure. do not drink alcohol in excess. side effects may include headache, upset stomach, delayed backache or muscle ache. to avoid long-term injury, get medical help right away for an erection lasting more than four hours. if you have any sudden decrease or loss in hearing or vision, or any symptoms of an allergic reaction, stop taking cialis and get medical help right away. ask your doctor about cialis and a $200 savings card stop taking cialis and get meor keeping a hotel's guests cuttinconnected.i to 35,000 fans... businesses count on communication, and communication counts on centurylink.

square's on the rise in the premarket. s stifel upgrading from hold to buy. stock's up 34% from the june lows. part of their argument is that larger merchants are warming to it. we have seen this go back and forth, the starbucks deal that

eventually faded. >> i'll tell you. the cfo there, ex-goldman and the fantastic cfo of goldman is on the square board and i think together they have given you much more confidence about the lending model they have. they have a good look at the payroll. now, i use my -- we use them for caviar for deliveries, just full disclosure. i happen to think they're very good. if larger merchants do use them opposed to like places like my place, sorry, sorry to my place, but, you know, it could be very good. remember, if they have a good look at your cash register, they know that you can give you advances, a $6,000 advance. that's very high rate. so even though i don't think that's score, the stifel guy likes that and talking about sustainability of the software programs. this is a high-growth program

and david farber would say they trust their people. the way you look at it is not to take into account the stock of the employees. but and so it doesn't look -- it looks super expensive. a high growth guy will like the fact they raised estimates and i think that sarah, again, i think we talk not enough about cfos on the show, sarah fryer has given people a sense of comfort. you don't think it's a credit company like signet or like a lending club. this is a company that has a business model that if it catches fire people will like. but i like earnings. i just like earnings. just got this thing about earnings. >> larger merchants, she writes, 6% of total gpv -- >> right. >> in '14. now from 6 to 14. reflecting growth of 80% year or

year. >> you know, i mean, i don't want to belabor the conference call but they talk about the larger merchants that have gone and it was like two guys from harrison, an old name for a two-guy show, i hadn't heard the clients and reminded me of facebook started and talked about a couple of games i never heard of. you need to -- square has to win somebody big, a big regional. if they do that, then i think it's -- i almost felt like when i read this maybe they know there's going to be a big win. not that fryer would give them anything they're not supposed to have but my criticism of dorsey running two companies and concerned about it. boilerplate bit of lingo to be careful of credit and then i look at the board and i think david viner said that of goldman. wherever he is he puts the to be sure. so i felt more comfortable. it is for high growth people. those that like high growth, square can work for you. maybe there's two two dorseys.

>> that's -- >> some say that's two cramers. >> that's right. interesting you mention the comfort of a good cfo brings you. that discussion with valaent yesterday. >> wow. that continues. >> he talks to "the journal" today. we'll have that later. >> he's so good. i believe him. i believe him. >> we'll talk more about valaent. you, of course, a big, large move yesterday and decline through the course of the day. >> totally. >> talking about that in a minute. we'll count down to the opening bell. another look at the premarket on this tuesday.

♪ we're drowning in information. where, in all of this, is the stuff that matters? the stakes are so high, your finances, your future. how do you solve this? you don't. you partner with a firm that advises governments and the fortune 500, and, can deliver insight person to person, on what matters to you. morgan stanley. real is touching a ray. amazing is moving like one. real is making new friends. amazing is getting this close. real is an animal rescue. amazing is over twenty-seven thousand of them.

there's only one place where real and amazing live. book a seaworld vacation package and eat free. mary buys a little lamb. one of millions of orders on this company's servers. accessible by thousands of suppliers and employees globally. but with cyber threats on the rise, mary's data could be under attack. with the help of at&t, and security that senses and mitigates cyber threats, their critical data is safer than ever. giving them the agility to be open & secure. because no one knows & like at&t.

♪ just about eight minutes to the opening bell. let's get cramer's mad dash. not all stories are good today. >> exactly. i think best buy is one that people thought would be worse and it turned out to be best. smucker and zoe's kitchen, two i had high hopes for. it was the pet food division of smucker's, so strong. a mix issue that brought the margins down. this is an unbelievable stock. i know, goldman, very negative on it. today they will be vindicated. let's listen to what they had to say. i don't want to bet against mr. smucker, very good ceo. good company and had the greatest run. i have general mills on tonight and a much more consistent player and a dividend and

buyback story. zoe's kitchen, carl, was the one that people talked about as the breakout mediterranean more natural and organic -- you know, not unlike chipotle. the chipotle of natural organic. give them credit. a lot of stores in texas and said there's a slowdown, no. you have a terrible confluence of higher labor costs, fewer people and this is a -- you know, big takeout, too, in the takeout didn't help them. >> sure. >> again, carl, this was a company that people just said they have the formula because that's what people want is that mediterranean light food. the formula ain't working for anybody. there's a real slowdown in restaurants. >> initiates a bunch of names. >> yes. >> sonic's, dardin's. mcdonald's a neutral. >> it's a quandary. come down quite a bit. we were excited about mktd. i don't want to -- there's

another guy. easterbrook. people want to bet against him, be my guest. look at this. he took it all the way up and people talking about oh my head and shoulders. blah blah blah. pay attention to the dividend. it's big there. they have financial flexibility. labor costs are going up. and people aren't going out as much. general mills tonight. it's very interesting. he said that people like to snack during meals. this is new. it's interesting because like the theme of his is they like to stay at home. >> yep. >> and they eat more natural and organic. looks like they rather eat at home natural and organic than go out. chipotle's still weak. >> remember when we talked about the cocooning, the phenomenal of staying home, watching netflix in your new home theater, not going to restaurants. >> it's back. it's back! you're wearing denim when you do. because you've just bought the home theater package of best

buy. welcome to 1997. >> yeah, yeah. unbelievable. a lot more to get to this morning. opening bell, a couple of minutes away. olympic gold medal maya dirado, conor dwyer will ring it. we'll talk to them. narrator: it wasn't that long ago. years of devastating cutbacks to our schools. 30,000 teachers laid off. class sizes increased. art and music programs cut. we can't ever go back. ryan ruelas: so vote yes on proposition 55. reagan duncan: prop 55 prevents 4 billion in new cuts to our schools. letty muñoz-gonzalez: simply by maintaining the current tax rate on the wealthiest californians. ryan ruelas: no new education cuts, and no new taxes. reagan duncan: vote yes on 55. sarah morgan: to help our children thrive.

from the creative galaxy in my idea box. would you help me make art? ♪ each one of our journeys ♪ keeps us young hey, i have an idea! ♪ we'll never get older... arty: go be amazing! amazing! announcer: give your cardboard box another life. whmade plastics that tmake them lighter?rs the lubricants that improved fuel economy. even technology to make engines more efficient. what company does all this? exxonmobil, that's who. we're working on all these things to make cars better and use less fuel. helping you save money and reduce emissions. and you thought we just made the gas. energy lives here.

you're watching cnbc's "squawk on the street" live from the financial xhal of the world. the opening bell in about two minutes on this tuesday where dollar continues to surprise us every morning. you are never really sure when you walk in the door. >> china last year at this time, really bad. we were worried about worldwide crisis. now it's wow, bad day, good day, bad day. seven straight months if august finishes up. >> yeah. that dow going for the only january losing month for the year. >> reminds us when you think that so goes january, so goes nothing. >> no. >> we have to get rid of the -- they don't make us money. >> what do you make of the

eurozone, flash pmis? >> i saw that. i said, oh my god, let me check the pmi and post-brexit. didn't everybody stop? casi no! they're cooking with gas over there. erin burnett enter deuced many e to this. it's a building block of manufacturing and talk about europe leading them. europe. europe is back. we don't talk about it enough. we ought to get houses in tusca tuscany. >> that is amazing. speaking of buyer of monosanto. it suggests the ongoing talks are fruitful. >> right. right. you know? i could be like a ventriloquist. these talks are going faster than i thought. they're better than i believed. what can i tell you? i think in the end the regulators aren't crazy about that because that's a combination. be careful about seeds.

i'm waiting for dow and dupont approval. >> yeah. let's get the opening bell here. the s&p bottom of the screen at the big board as we said, u.s. gold medal swimmers from the rio olympics, maya dirado and conor dwyer. congratulations to them. we'll talk to them in a couple of minutes. at the nasdaq, silicon labs celebrating the 20th anniversary. >> swimming on tv is one of the great sports, isn't it? i mean, when you were there, everything, but some things really work well on coverage. >> it's just a natural on tv. it's a natural live. and the way they have been able to outfit the pool with underwater cameras that track, i mean, it's -- >> i was fascinated. i remember the old days. i was a runner. i was going to say great one ru. watch these guys. they have a science to swim. i was like i'm there in the pool flailing.

terrific to have the nice people. >> i can't wait to talk to them in a couple of minutes. mobile eye and delphi. how about this? confirming to roll out what they say is a fully autonomous driving system by 2019? >> there have been -- let's put it this way. people tried to cash in on this -- on basically what i would regard as being a lot of hope. a lot of hope on autonomous driving and autonomous driving needs a lot of -- there are many different aspects, not just what mobile eye has. they have a great product. delphi is in a lot of cars and makes sense. you are buying a press release. i think a lot of people bought mobile eye on press releases. delphi less expensive stock. look, we know it's coming, going to happen. if you're buying these stocks on this, recognize tomorrow there will not be a new partnership. you will have bought mobile eye and why did i? because it's not additive to earnings right now and this is a market that wants additive

earnings right now. >> they do say in january they're going to demonstrate how, for instance, a self-driving car can navigate a round about, changing lanes, these things. >> i was out at ford to the silicon valley to the basically to the brain trust and, carl, it is a possibility of trying to figure out if it's a passenger -- if it's a pedestrian. and then the sacrifice between you versus the pedestrian. do you take the hit or does the pedestrian take the -- you have to have more than just visual. you have to have judgment. and i think that's the problem. judgment. >> yeah. people are judging best buy shares in a very good -- this is now a 16% gain at the open. >> supposed to be the world's greatest short. i think they didn't listen to what ellison had to say. not the oracle ellison but marvin ellison of jcpenney. >> this is going to take you

back to almost -- almost september of 2015. in terms of price level. >> okay. >> and your pvh is not far behind. >> pvh, oh geez. inventories lean. regular pricing means back to school, they call pvh saying we need more shirts and ties. all right? you know, pvh, there's like they have a monopoly. well no. a ol gop think and a gigantic percentage of the ties. and shirts. so i like that call very much. i'm pounding the table on that for ages now. but remember, even like the kohls, the nordstrom, they had good numbers, they did not talk about that weary consumer. consumer goes to target is weary. >> weary? >> yeah. she is weary. not at the other place. target and macy's two problematic situations but when you go over these quarters and

you listen to these merchants, and they're telling you, we do not have a lot of inventory, that means they ordered. and it's incredible. when you order, where it feeds to, pvh. people have to recognize the brands but, look. rising tide's going to lift all boats. gamestop up today. it reports. and i think gaming side of best buy wasn't that good. so people like retail. they like retail again. they like down and out retail. dollar general and dollar tree this week. will they still like the down scale? i don't know. >> that's a good one. they're going for the ones beaten up and they're not going for the ones that are -- other than walmart and had a great quarter. walmart's still fiddling out of a business in the uk. doug mcmillan is saying, listen, i'm going to close things that don't work. he's a decisive guy. he's decisive but indecisive of

"mad money." i press him every day. >> there's competitive pressures in house to get him on the show. >> yeah, oh man. you can't say i own you. you don't. he's got a lot to crow about as do everybody, sears does not. a moment on jcpenney. i like the stock very much. 400 macy's -- i'm sorry. macy's closing back. that doesn't hurt them and 400 sears in the malls they're in. that's one of the reasons why appliances are so good. people have just -- sears is pulling back. he calls it a smaller footprint in the jcpenney and being very polite. like diminishing every day. >> between smucker and zoe's, anything regarding food today is having trouble. chipotling to campbell to kellogg to kroger. >> let's see what powell says tonight coming on. they have resurrected cheerios by taking out the gluten and the

color. i remember talking about taking out the color of trix. who will eat in it the american people. millennials love natural organic and tired of food coloring. campbell's was not good quarter. i think they get it together. a very good ceo. very good. >> last time we had him on he talked about the original move to take gluten out of cheerios. no one was talking about it at that time. >> the basis point swing there is dramatic. the turn. we'll -- people circle back to target. circle back to home depot. the tragedy of louisiana is not talked about enough and it is a bad tragedy and when i go and look at where the home depots are, they gave $700,000 to emergency fund. home depot is there first. they're like a department store red cross. they're such a good company. but they -- that stock deserves to be up. i think they benefit. the west was strong. but 60,000 homes destroyed

largely insured, home depot's there and you need more appliances and shift it. even though there's not more than 20 stores, it will matter in their comps. >> by the way, the president today going to louisiana. >> good. i think -- why's this get overlooked? it's the worst -- you know, this is a terrible storm. and some areas of the country i have been to that's are fabulous. very tough. >> turns of leading the dow, we have seen strength in footwear, nike's up there. caterpillar and boeing, jim, after we got those rolling retail sales numbers last week out of cat. >> seeing caterpillar, i don't think people get that it down deere here. deere was a short squeeze admittedly. breaking down the deere call, not selling, not selling and what we're -- what we do sell we are making so much more money on. i predict cat says the same thing. if the yen is stronger, sara eisen, focus more on that, i think what will happen is she'll

say the komatsu will pull out. the weak hand in the -- you know, in the deck right now. caterpillar makes more people than people realize. being circumspect and put it past them. and they have got supply chain down. they have control of the dealers first time. the network, i like cat. i've been liking cat and doubling down on cat. i don't care about the numbers that they sell. it's how much money they make. look at the deere quarter. a terrible quarter! >> i know. >> i bet you that stock is going -- there you go. that's confounding the shorts. deere and best buys are killing people. >> we wondered on friday how ag down 11 and construction down 24 and deere made any -- >> they made a fortune on everything they sold. by the way, carl, i know you came back from there, carl is back from brazil and brazil is back. jim last night from american tower. brazil, hidden strength. the hidden strength of brazil? i mean -- >> i do what i can. what can i tell you?

>> they didn't have the soap and no towels there. but boy brazil's looking good. >> cat and nike and boeing. >> foot locker call was so good. people should go listen to that. dick johnson, what an amazing job. >> bringing the dow up 93. hey, bob. >> good morning, carl. nice up move here. dow up 93 points right now. europe's having a good day. good parts of europe up 3%. italy, germany and spain there. we have the pmi numbers better than expected and having a good day. here in the u.s., back to the cyclicals in favor so tech, materials, consumer discretionary. industrials. and the more defensive names are lagging the markets. so again, little more risk on today. the best buy numbers were just great. i know you made comments about it. i want the point out how good the numbers were. appliances up 8%. heavens. electronics, remember what's going on with walmart and target. they had disappointing electr

electron electronics. up 4%? that's the key number right there. computing and mobile phones with a positive number in front of it. services and entertainment to the downside. so we were talking about this in the morning meeting. one of the last man standing kind of thing still there and still selling phones, still selling appliances, one of the last places to get a lot of these things, there you see best buy up 15%. bottom line is they're gaining some market share and critical cat goirls in very difficult parts of the economy right now. toll brothers, these numbers were really very impressive overall here. see toll brothers trading to the upside a bit. in line with consensus revenues. that's not what's important. it's metrics to see in terms of revenues and orders, revenues up 25%. remember, this company bought a california company a while ago. not just a northeast company anymore. they bought chappelle and a significant presence in california and showing up in the revenue numbers. orders up 18%, a terrific

number. people who put down money without signing a contract, that's the difference between orders and reservations deposit. come back in a few weeks and then sign a contract with us. even the people putting down just some money has increased rather notably. bottom line, upper end, what toll brothers is doing is holding up very well. the number of contracts, the prices they're charging, all doing well. their expansion into california proven to be a plus for them. california's holding up very well. they're opening more communities and they're selling more homes inside those communities and that's why the revenue is going up. it was one final thing i think is very important to point out about toll brothers. and that's the share count reduction. it's not commonly mentioned. they buried it down in the press release but there's a share buyback monster. 2% of the shares outstanding before reduced in the third quarter. that's a lot. and in the last nine months, this is their third quarter that

they fin initialled here and fiscal third quarter. they have reduced their share count by 7%. that is an enormous number. essentially all other things being equal, the earnings up 7%. all other things being equal. and that's a significant change overall. people need to understand how important that is. by the way, we are going to have doug yearley ceo of toll brothers on "power lunch" in the hour. right now, the dow up 90 points. guys, back to you. >> bob, thank you very much. >> i'm so glad that bob mentioned the toll brothers buyback. i think they said they have enough and buying back stock. and the price he bought was $26.33. you know, this is a man who does not spend his money idly and very charitable. i never mind saying it. >> good to know. >> he won't say it. >> that's right. let's get to the bond pits, as well. good morning, rick. >> good morning, carl. you know, when you say new normal, there's an embedded

assumption whatever the new normal is, before when we had the old normal, it was considered abnormal. and the same could be said for so many things. negative interest rates are becoming normal. lack of movement is not only transcending logic but it is definitely squatting. just consider we're now two days into the fourth week in terms of trading sessions in august. today's the 17th. every single one as you see on this chart is settled in the 150s. boons aren't much different. dollar index, similar except for definitely a downward drift making sense. i'll tell you what. you want life simple? if the fed has a chance of tightening and most likely the next move, it's going to flatten the curve. period. end of story. and you really see that in the 30s minus 5s. you're basically looking at a chart of march of '15. that's basically the last time

we were this flat. if you look at the dollar/yen, that's also really a bit counter intuitive. many are saying, wow, how could it be doing so well in if you want to see the whole truth about the dollar/yen, you can't just go back to the last time it traded here and november of '13. look at a five-year chart for the type of perspective, more fully understand this move. and year to date of the pound versus dollar, that double bottom is something definitely you want to pay attention to it's intact going according to plan say technicians. carl, back to you. >> all right. thank you very much. rick santelli. when we come back, maya dirado, conor dwyer joins us and the dow up 90 points as we said. we're back in a minute.

♪ approaching medicare eligibility? you may think you can put off checking out your medicare options until you're sixty-five, but now is a good time to get the ball rolling. keep in mind, medicare only covers about eighty percent of part b medical costs. the rest is up to you. that's where aarp medicare supplement insurance plans insured by unitedhealthcare insurance company come in. like all standardized medicare supplement insurance plans, they could help pay some of what medicare doesn't, saving you in out-of-pocket medical costs. you've learned that taking informed steps along the way really makes a difference later.

that's what it means to go long™. call now and request this free decision guide. it's full of information on medicare and the range of aarp medicare supplement plans to choose from based on your needs and budget. all plans like these let you choose any doctor or hospital that accepts medicare patients, and there are no network restrictions. unitedhealthcare insurance company has over thirty years experience and the commitment to roll along with you, keeping you on course. so call now and discover how an aarp medicare supplement plan could go long™ for you. these are the only medicare supplement insurance plans endorsed by aarp, an organization serving the needs of people 50 and over for generations. plus, nine out of ten plan members surveyed say they would recommend their plan to a friend. remember, medicare doesn't cover everything. the rest is up to you.

call now, request your free decision guide and start gathering the information you need to help you keep rolling with confidence. go long™. ♪ ♪

members of team usa swimming team rang the opening bell a few moments ago and joining us at post 9 this morning, swimmers maya dirado and conor dwyer with us. guys, welcome. welcome home. >> thank you. >> congratulations on everything. i just got do say, at start, thank you for giving the country so much to be proud about. i mean, because you guys just crushed it. are you aware of that sentiment? >> it's starting to kind of set in seeing people back here in the states and just the excitement that people felt for the olympics, we are so happy we were able to bring those feelings. >> the gloom was lifted in the country for a couple of weeks. right? >> yeah. we tried to make some people proud and give you guys something to cheer about. >> how do you come down from the that? i've seen a write-up of christmas and then a 9:00 to 5:00 life style. how do you begin that process? >> she is starting the 9:00 to 5:00. i'm going back to training. >> she is working at mckenzie.

6:00 a.m. to 10:00 p.m. >> no more naps for her. >> no more naps. >> what is the plan with mckenzie? going right there or wait? >> no. so they were amazing, called me after the games and we were like, we imagine things are different for you so if you want to push it back, i'm going to start in january now. >> really? >> time to kind of decompress, do things like this and then be full bore january when i start. >> do you have ideas of things to work on when you're there or the type of clients to want to work for? >> so i think at the beginning they show you everything but i would love to get into public sector work and work in education specifically. i think there's a lot of room for improvement there. >> we got to talk about the endorsement issue. but i'm particularly interested and phil knight was on "mad money" not that long ago and what he explained to me was that they never made a deal that wasn't great for them. and this people who think that endorsements don't work, they really do. >> yeah. >> i don't know. i mean, it seems like -- when you see these companies like speedo, whatever, it occurs to

me that americans like to buy what athletes wear. >> yeah, we are fortunate recipients of that. i have bmw as a sponsor. i was like, really, me? i'm sure man did the research and really honored to represent bmw and speedo. >> conor, how do you begin -- you'll do tokyo, i assume. >> yes, yes. >> so, how does the -- how soon does the active preparation for that begin? >> i've already done a few workouts after the olympics. i'll stay out of the pool for three weeks to a month and then hop back in training pretty soon. >> what do you think tokyo will be like? everybody's talking about the time difference and we're doing several games in asia for our parent company. >> i think they're going to crush it. i've heard they're well prepared. who knows? you know, the media will like to bring something down and scare us before it starts so who knows

what that is. >> not all of us. want to ask you. look. mabel it's just my impression but are swimmers after swimming, done better than most other sports? i was at the nfl, recently visiting a training camp and all worried about what happens after football. not that many people are worried about swimming. are you a good record of business people after? >> that's a great point. i think, you know, swimmers learn so many great skills through the sport and you have to do time management and working super hard to balance your school and swimming, you know, throughout your whole life and i think it lends itself to making the transition really well to life after swimming and that you know how to work hard and be really focused. >> work day starts at 5:00 a.m. and ends at 6:00 p.m. and we are used to the grind. >> when you are in the water, we talked about how nbc has outfit -- how the olympic committees have put the cameras in the pool. do you see them swimming? >> yeah, yeah. you see them moving under you. >> is it distracting?

>> i had a moment where they put it -- i was going to the turn and there was a camera like right there and so if i had swam closer, i would have hit it. that was shocking but other than that you're used to it at that point. >> that was the money shot. how did they get that? >> what's tokyo going to be like without phelps and lochte? >> who knows? maybe they'll both be back? i think there's a lot of young talent on our team to help carry the role of winning a lot of gold medals. >> i mean, i don't want to beleaguer the lochte stuff but are you guys -- is the team mad? shaking your head? what's the overall emotion regarding what happened with his situation? >> a little bummed. bummed for him and the sport that that was the story. when we had an incredible week the first week. a record medal haul for us and then for the athletes in the second week overshadowed, they work four years for a moment and then that's the story and we're definitely bummed but i think

people remember the first week and how excited they were. >> do you think it's forlten over time and fade? >> i think so. he made a mistake and i think he'll bounce back. >> have you ever rung the opening bell or been here before? >> i've been here before with tom farley. >> you have? >> he's taken me around. >> great. -- >> name dropping. >> i have my executive producer's husband went to loyola, go rambler. >> go ramblers. >> congratulations. they'll gorgeous. >> thank you. >> thank you for having us. we'll get trading with jim. dow's up 92. don't go away.

what's happening here? this is my new alert system for whenever anything happens in the market. but thinkorswim already lets you create custom alerts for all the things that are important to you. i guess we don't need the kid anymore. custom alerts on thinkorswim. only at td ameritrade. with this level of engineering... it's a performance machine. with this degree of intelligence... it's a supercomputer. with this grade of protection... it's a fortress. and with this standard of luxury... it's an oasis. introducing the completely redesigned e-class. it's everything you need it to be...

and more. lease the e300 for $549 a month at your local mercedes-benz dealer. mercedes-benz. the best or nothing. what w here to buy a car. your business needs better technology to drive better performance. so you need it to be reliable and fast. really fast.

introducing the comcast business summer savings event. fast internet speed to drive performance, plus cutting edge wifi for your employees and customers, and voice mobility so your calls find you wherever you are. get some of our most advanced products at a great price with over $500 in savings. call today and ask how to get these savings plus a $250 prepaid card. comcast business. built for business. time for cramer and "stop trading." i talked about the industrials and how great they're doing. there's really good call overlooked. credit suisse today with johnson controls on the list. we have raving about this. this may be the new industrial that the portfolio managers go to. i know it's up a lot and really has lagged and i think that you have got september 2nd and then 15th analyst's meeting.

this is one you can still buy. >> can't wait for general mills tonight. >> i love that. epr property. they own a charter school and golfing and resorts, movie theaters. but it's real estate investment trust. a great story few people care about except for me and people that bought it at 40 points ago. we'll listen to ken powell. >> smart guy. see you tonight. 6:00 p.m. when we come back, independent presidential candidate evan mcmullin as the nasdaq sets a new high. whether it's connecting one of the world's most innovative campuses. or bringing wifi to 65,000 fans. businesses count on communication, and communication counts on centurylink.

♪ good tuesday morning. welcome back to "squawk on the street." david farber is off. dow up 89. s&p about a point away from an all-time high. nasdaq got there and the russell is within 3.7% of doing the same. oil, by the way, down 4669. >> we have breaking economic data at this hour. rick santelli in chicago with that. rick? >> august richmond fed.

this is realtime in terms of chronological order and minus 11. minus 11 places it at the weakest levels since january of '13. now, july new home sales, wow, this is a big number. we're expecting 580. we ended up 564,000. i'm going to have to flip quite a few pages to see when the last time we were anywhere near -- i'm sorry. 654,000. you'd have to go back to -- wow. '07. october of '07 to get a bigger number. little perspective, though. 1.4 million is the high watermark and up 12.4%. diana olick that is surprise strong number. your thoughts? >> i think it's a great number. we have the look at the june number revised down to 582 so looking at that 12% shift, part

of that in that mix and also seeing the supply of new home sales for sale going down. so that's going to put more upward pressure on prices. we did see a slight drop in the median price of a new home sold in july to 294,600. may be a mix shift of smaller homes. we are seeing a lot of builders start to build smaller homes and seems to be what's in demand right now but that's a nice jump up for the month of july. because, remember, this number is based on signed contracts. not closings. which is a number we see for existing home sales and people out shopping in july, walking through those new models and signing on the dotted line. again, it's a great number for the month. we have to continue to watch these prices because what's really been selling is the higher end newly built homes so we'll be watching prices and a great start for july. back to you. >> diana, thank you for that analysis on that better than expected new home sales data. meantime, watching shares of best buy rising more than 15%

after the retailer beat analyst's estimates. company seeing a big sales growth in some of its consumer electronics along with a big jump in online revenue. for more on what it takes to keep best buy on this path of profitability, let's bring in matt mcclintock and peter keith. peter, you are on hold with this stock and now the price has moved beyond your target. you must have been surprised like many other analysts to see the strength in the best buy results. when surprised you most? >> sure. i would say the stand-out positive for us was the positive same store sales growth of 0.8% in the u.s. we were expecting a slight decline. i think expectations were even probably for negative 1, negative 2. and what this does is it sets the stage up better for the back half of the year where best buy all year has been guiding for revenue increases in the back half. we have been skeptical of it.

but with positive same store sales growth in q3 and now a new iphone cycle it looks like the likelihood of growth is much stronger at this point. >> yeah. i mean, matt, would you agree? seems like you were a little more positive on the name going into this number. >> yeah, i would actually agree with everything peter just said. more importantly, i think you should look at e-commerce growth. it was up 24%. that's one of the best e-commerce growth rates for the entire retail industry. beat target, walmart, it set ra. amazon potentially isn't as big of a threat for best buy as it is for a target or a walmart. >> if you would stay with us and on this note courtney reagan reporter on retail was just on the call with the ceo at hq with headlines here. courtney? >> that's right. it's interesting because there's focus on the online sales for best buy up 24%.

that's particularly important as we've seen other retailers like target and walmart see their growth rates actually begin to decelerate so up 24% is really something to be proud of. and they said on the media call that the online traffic was strong and really helped the conversion increase. that's a big issue online. you see sometimes traffic but you can't necessarily get the consumers to follow through to checkout and getting much better at best buy for that conversion to actually get customers to make a purchase. joly says that best buy can ship small packages if two days or less and most of them, a large percentage of the store ship free without a subscription. a little tiny dig there at amazon without saying it and added that part of the journey does happen digitally for shoppers coming to consumer electronics so the improvements that they have made on the website has actually really helped keep shoppers engaged on both of those channels, the

store and online. and speaking of the stores, joly says traffic is down in stores, it's been down for sometime. but conversion is also up in stores and joly credits the website in part for preparing the shopper in advance, doing the research, knowing what they're looking for in the final step of the process and seeing it in store. joly says best buy doesn't comment on specific vendors and said they have a strong relationship with both apple and samsung noting the shop and shops for both the brands and hundreds of the stores and key because target called out weakness in apple products saying it was responsible for the third of those double digit sales declines. best buy wouldn't go into that much detail. >> down 20%. seems like a lot of retailers not going in that direction. courtney, thank you. >> thank you, sara. >> we have two analysts covering this stock. peter and matt. peter, has best buy figured out how to avoid the showrooming

concept? >> i think you can definitively say yes at this point with that strong online growth of 24%. when they compare the sales growth versus industry data, not perfectly apples to apples and looks like market share gains across the store. one area where we have been particularly impressed is in the computing area, that's an area broadly speaking for consumers down and continuing to show growth there. the old saying that best buy is losing market share to amazon is outdated. >> matt, i wonder, just exactly how much investors can extrapolate from even a very good quarter in the second quarter. obviously for best buy, like a lot of retailers, not the most crucial quarter of the year. do any of the queues you see from this quarter carry over to holiday? can you say that this company has momentum and deserve

something more than a 11 or times times earnings on the stock where it about trades? >> yeah. i think on the holiday and the back half of the year, as peter mentioned earlier, we are going into an iphone cycle and helps in 3q, more importantly, the company prooufb to remain relevant in televisions and telling 4k tvs and selling ate as a complete package with a home theater product and the consumer has discussions with people who know what they're talking about about how to set it up in their house and people investing in houses, houses as we mentioned earlier on the show, houses are smaller and people want to invest more in the houses and stuff to be nice and best buy presents a complete package and potentially do this holiday to differentiate themselves from other retailers who just compete on price. >> going into the quarter, peter, the worry is 4k tvs, downgrade last week saying that there's going to be more competition. the demand diminished.

the average selling prices for 4k tvs diminished. what did we learn about that today? >> yeah. the tv -- we look at average selling price on tv and coming down at 30% analyzed rate. i think the asp right now is about -- below $1,000 in 4k walmart is more relevant in the category and we think they will be a lot more competitive this holiday season. although when you look at the results for q2, you have to credit best buy they lock like they're continuing to take share in tvs and near term probably no stoppage in that dynamic. >> and finally, matt, i would just note that 73% of analysts tracked by fact set have a hold on the stock. fewest number of buys in a while. is that a reason for optimism? is there too much negativity around this name? >> i think that's right and too much negativity. when's interesting is best buy

trades at roughly 10 to 12 times price to ratio. they face threat from digital or more importantly amazon and questions on the terminal value of their business model. i think best buy is a sustainable business model. what they sell is innovation. when the consumer wants to see new innovation, they want to see it in the physical world. and don't want to spend $2,000 before they see what they're buying and you need somebody to walk you through the process of purchasing that new item you're not familiar with so i think best buy is a company not viewed as a structurally challenged retailer but a company on the tail end of an innovation cycle and we potentially can go into a new innovation cycle of connected home or some of the interesting services they're starting to offer. >> we'll see what the holiday brings on that front. good discussion on best buy. thank you. when we come back, oil falling again as goldman says

this recent recovery is fragile and not driven by fundamentals. a look at where it could go and what it means for the markets. independent candidate evan mcmillin will join us. why donald trump is in his words a total disaster. when "squawk on the street" continues.

as a supervisor at pg&e, it's my job to protect public safety, keeping the power lines clear, while also protecting the environment. the natural world is a beautiful thing, the work that we do helps us protect it.

public education is definitely a big part of our job, to teach our customers about the best type of trees to plant around the power lines. we want to keep the power on for our customers. we want to keep our community safe. this is our community, this is where we live. we need to make sure that we have a beautiful place for our children to live. together, we're building a better california. oil moving lower following a 3% loss yesterday and after bearish comments this morning of

goldman sachs, jackie deangelis is live with more. the call getting traction? >> good morning to you. it is. remember, goldman reiterating the most recent range, 45 to $50 but saying that the recovery of that 20% run-up in 2 weeks is fragile. that's part of the move lower today. the other piece are the fact that we have this huge run-up i mentioned, you have some short covering and new longs and when the shorts stop covering and the longs start taking profits, you have pressure back down. the move in the dollar ahead of the fed, yellen's comments very much key and support in the trade around $46. we are getting very close to that range right now. but it's unlikely that we're going to see crude breakout, you can, over 50 or under that $45 mark. meantime, this morning iran has said it that will commit to the opec talks late in september. speculation that we would see a freeze or some sort of cooperation sent these prices a

little bit higher and it wasn't enough to go over 50 at this point. all eyes on september and so many other factors to consider here, as well. back to you. >> so many factors. thank you very much. appreciate it. stocks are in the green nearing all-time highs as oil continues to struggle as jackie mentioned. goldman sachs rit lating the $45 to $50 price range for crude and warning not even opec can save struggling oil prices stating while a discussion of opec freeze and a weakening dollar have been a catalyst, we believe neither is sufficient to support prices much further. joining us now to discuss the markets more, jim paulson at wells capital and sam margalin at cohen. thank you for joining us here. sam, let's start with you in terms of your broad outlook for crude right now, a lot of talk of these kind of external factors that seem to be driving things, investor positioning, the dollar, or even just a kind of whispers of supply cutout of

opec. what do you think of the most salient points right now? >> i think currency and sentiment are the two most important things right now. i don't think fundamentals become important until next year. and that's why the opec meetings are so important in the next four or five months. if there's no freeze that's bearish and opec will continue to grow into this oversupplied market and what we have seen i think that supports the idea of a freeze is that opec's really sort of exhausted its commercial opportunities in the market. there's no room to grow. there's no buyers to grow right now and so a freeze is a nice way to make the optics of no more demand look actually somewhat bullish and that's our angle for that view but i agree right now, currency's number one and sentiment is probably number two as far as when's moving the price over the past call it four weeks. >> your current take is a september freeze is basically priced into the oil market but maybe a cut in november would

not be? >> yeah. i think a cut in november would offer material upside. from a fundamental standpoint the move from 38 to $48 doesn't do a whole lot. it doesn't make any oil producers profitable or cheap from an equity standpoint and so a lot of that move is noise and just trading. i don't think you get a real supply/demand push until next year and that would certainly be accelerated by anything that opec does. >> yeah. jim, just to broaden it out here, you know, maybe there's not a lot of evidence of big uptick in demand for oil but the markets are suggesting that there has been a little bit of a pick-up in some of these cyclical forces. you pointed out late last week you see a global rebound in the economy right now. what does that mean for markets and fed policy in your view? >> i do, mike. i mean, i think if you look at a lot of global economic surprise indices, they make quite a move upward here since march from one of the lowest levels of the

recovery to one of the highest and i think that's sort of reflected as you said the stock market, not only markets everywhere up but cyclicals and the commodity markets. i mean, crude might not be up as much as we like but still up a lot off the lows and industrial commodity prices up 20%, as well. corporate bond spreads are continuing to tighten as though there's a recovery going on globally. i think if we get a global -- not necessarily strong global growth but just synchronize bounce in growth of china to japan, europe to here that would be optimism for a period among equity investors. the primary thing it would do is radically upscale earnings estimates. the -- one of the tough things for the stock market last couple of years is earneings estimates going up and i think the actual earnings are going to maybe outpace expectations.

the bad side is as you bring up, if we do get a synchronized global bounce, it is the first of the recovery, coming at a time when we're already at full employment here in the united states. i think it will escalate the fed's exit strategy. >> speaking of that, sam, i wonder we are still looking at the home sales number of this morning. and you couple that with maybe some other things later in the week. does it prove that dudley and fischer not just trying to jawbone the market? >> well, i mean, the fed is going to be moving forward with rate policy at some point. i think the question for commodities is the pace. oil can probably sustain upside at 25 basis-point raises over time sequentially. you know? if the economy really is growing that much faster than what was appreciated six months ago and the hikes faster than that, that's more of a head wind but i think the base case right now

aligns with, you know, 17 being a broadly better year for commodities than oil specifically. >> all right. sam, jim, thanks very much, guys. up next, widespread outrage as the price of epipen surges to over $500. more than 400% increase of 2007. a look at why and what if any action is being taken to fight that. have a look at the homebuilders. better numbers of toll this morning an as carl mentioned, a better number on new home sales for the month of july. up more than 12% near a nine-year high. what if a company that didn't make cars made plastics that make them lighter? the lubricants that improved fuel economy. even technology to make engines more efficient. what company does all this? exxonmobil, that's who. we're working on all these things to make cars better

and use less fuel. helping you save money and reduce emissions. and you thought we just made the gas. energy lives here.

lawmakers pushing for answers as the price of epipens skyrockets to over $500. our meg tirrell at hq with details. hey, meg. >> the price is increasing steadily over the past few years and now as it does start to put psh on consumers, patient's ability to access the epipen, senators are starting to pay attention. take a look at the graph of the price of epipen over the last few years.

it's made by mylan and steadily ticked up there. this is starting to cause some consternation. there was an article last week from nbc news about back to school season and this is catching the attention of folks in congress. bernie sanders tweeting about this last week saying there's no reason an epipen which costs mylan a few dollars to make should cost families more than $600 and senator grassley sent a letter to the ceo inquiring about the price increases and plowed back into the product. mylan sent us a statement saying that with changes in the health care insurance landscape, an increasing number of people and families are enrolled in high deductible health plans and deductible amounts continue to rise. this shift has presented new challenges for consumers and they're bearing more of the cost. mylan said they're doing a lot to help those specific patients access epipens with some for free or co-pay assistance to

them but clearly this is starting to pressure the shares. down 3.5% today. analysts starting to pay attention to this saying this kind of attention really isn't good for mylan, clearly. wondering if there's more sort of formal congressional inquiries. today, senator blumenthal will discuss this. back to you. >> there's a lot of awareness of this issue. on the local news this week. meg, thank you. and the move is even being criticized by martin shkreli. he jacked up prices in 2015. in an interview of nbc news, he says, quote, these guys are really vultures. what drives this company's moral compass? and i just wonder whether he was being tongue in cheek because, of course, he is one of the most hated price hikers in the country. >> yeah. >> maybe only nixon can go to china. only he can complain about medical device prices. >> this is, you know, one way to get some attention, too.

but, you know, i still think it's a very fascinating thing for investors to see how any company can get in the crosshairs and become an object of scorn and ridicule based on one product. right or wrong, it's definitely a hazard in this area. this morning, independent presidential candidate evan mcmillin on when's a unique strategy to win the white house and deny both clinton and trump a victory. we'll talk about that in a moment.

good morning, everybody. i'm sue herera. here's the cnbc news update at this hour. a u.s. service member died from wounds sustained in afghanistan. it happened during training activities of counterparts when the patrol triggered an explosive device. six afghan soldiers were wounded. four people were killed, three of them were children in a fire in chicago's south side earlier this morning.

it's a three-story apartment complex and police said that man suspected of started the fire is taken into custody. firefighters in california continue to battle the chimney wildfire in central california. more than 33,000 acres have burned and it's only 35% contained. the blaze threatening the legendary hearst castle getting within 2 miles of that estate. and the court of arbitration for sport rejecting russia's appeal to overturn the banishment from the paralympic games next month ruled the international paralympic committee didn't violate rules in banning the team for doping. that is the cnbc news update this hour. carl, i'll send it back down to you. >> sue, thank you very much. turning the politics now. clinton leading trump according to the latest polling of nbc news and survey monkey. clinton's 8-point lead virtually unchanged since the democratic national convention. our next guest is trying to disrupt that equation.

evan mcmullin is running for president as an independent candidate and joining us here at post 9. good to have you here. >> thank you. >> you have consistently argued no way trump can win and yet several pollsters say there's plenty of time in which he can win. why is that not so? >> polls suggesting that he's so far behind, i think at this late stage in the game it's very difficult and less about the polls, actually. and more about how he's alienated so many sets, so many portions of the american population. just very difficult. and when you look at the battleground states, he is performing worse than on a national level. down by 14 percentage points in virginia, it is difficult. >> difficult but not impossible. >> in this election i wouldn't have entered this race if this election -- if the normal was the routine here. obviously, anything's possible here. he could come back but he would have to become a different person and i just don't see that happening. >> abc news reporting citing a

memo of your campaign your goal here is to block clinton and trump from 270 electoral votes and send the election to the house of representatives. what makes you think it's going to happen? >> i would say that's one path to victory. another path is that donald trump continues to implode and then just fades off in the polls or decides to get out because his ego won't allow him to do so poorly and stay in the race. who knows? anything is possible. but yes. that is possible. this is unlike any other time, 82% of americans are unhappy with the direction of this country. 82%. 42% of americans consider themselves independents. there are a lot of factors that are different this year, this time around that open up opportunities i think for independent candidates. >> do you think that a message that you might put out there to resonate to say we want to stop one of these two from becoming president? what else are you offering a voter besides a protest or a tactical vote to prevent them

from winning? >> thank you for the question. it's much more than that. i firmly believe it's time for a new generation of leadership. both donald trump and hillary clinton are offering old ideas on the trump side bigotry and misonlyny and the hillary side, centralized top down government and insiders flourish and the rest of america struggles to be heard. these are old ideas. for us to prosper and be secure, we need to shed the ideas an move on and that's what i propose and offer. >> isn't this easier to do a year ago? >> yes. >> why didn't you do it then? >> i hoped like so many americans that someone else who has national name i.d. and an infrastructure already in place to do it. i only did this because it was the last moment possible and knowing that no one else would do it. someone had to the requested. i had the opportunity so i did. >> can you walk viewers through your map strategy? where can you win? where is it logistically

possible to win and where do you think you will? >> we're getting on the ballots where we can across america. there are many ways to do that through petitions and also through third parties. who want to work with us and legal challenges and write-in campaigns and many ways for us to give american voters the opportunity to vote for me. so we'll be, you know, we're focusing on the mountain west, clearly part of our strategy. we'll be elsewhere, as well. but we're already on idaho or we're soon to be on idaho's ballot. utah, colorado, iowa. these are some of these swing states in the election. >> how much will it cost you? >> well, we have different levels of activity based on different funding levels. we are confident we'll have what we need to compete in the way we're describing. of course, more money will help us compete more broadly across the country. but based on the way things have gone, we're confident we'll have what we need. >> on your economic message, evan, what stood out to me when

we spoke a few weeks ago is that you are actually a supporter of tpp unlike the current two presidential candidates. and you're a supporter of free trade. what else would you tell those americans who -- that anti-trade message resonating with, left behind in this recovery and have not seen their wages rise in decades. >> well, thank you for the question. i would say first of all i hear you. there are people out there very much struggling and i believe that many in this country, many lead emergency rooms in the country, have ignored them. that's part of the problem. part of the problem of a centralized government in washington, d.c. that doesn't hear the people. they need to be heard. their concerns are legitimate. we can't pander to that. we need to speak the truth to them and the rest of america. we have been groying for last ten years, gdp growing under 2%. we cannot have on average -- >> what's the plan to get that growth? >> trade. >> trump has lower taxes, get rid of regulations and help business. >> that's true.

it will. he says we need a moratorium on regulations. i would say we need some structural reforms so that as we regulate, the people's voices are heard in that process. yes, i want lower taxes, too, on the corporate level and the individual level. we have to trade and that's one of the biggest flaws in his rhetoric is he says that, you know, trade is harming us more than it's helping us and that's not the case. 95% of the world's consumers outside of our border. we have also got to take care of the people suffering as a result of transitions in industries. >> you know, it is not only two other candidates. how would you distinguish what you're proposing from the libertarian ticket that's out there and getting a lot of support? >> i would say noother of the two other third party candidates if you will are prepared to keep this country safe. i spent over ten years with the central intelligence agency on the front lines of the national security efforts and i know from day one what needs to happen to

keep this country safe. none of them do. they have fantasy ideas about america's role in the world and not leave us better protected to be secure and prosperous in the country. that's first and foremost. i'm the only conservative candidate in this race on social issues and on government reform issues. none of the other candidates, whether large or small, have these views. >> we're going to watch your campaign. >> thank you very much. >> as you make your way across the country. come back. welcome and come back any time. >> i hope so. i would love to. thank you. >> joining us here candidate. we turn to john harwood this morning as trump reportedly changing his tune on what is his signature issue, immigration. john harwood in washington with that. hey, john. >> reporter: carl, we expect politicians to adjust their positions over time. that's why they're politicians, running for office, seeking votes but this is an extraordinary circumstance with donald trump here. first of all, let's remember that the core issue that he has

flagged from the beginning of his campaign was that the -- what he has called the open border immigration policy of president obama has been a disaster for the united states. here's his recent foreign policy speech. >> president obama has weakened our military by weakening our economy. he's crippled us with wasteful spending, massive debt, low growth, a huge trade deficit and open borders. >> open borders. now, donald trump has fallen behind in the polls. he is doing very poorly with latino voters. he met with latino leaders over the weekend. now listen to what he told bill o'reilly on fox last night. >> what people don't know is that obama got tremendous numbers of people out of the country. bush the same thing. lots of people were brought out of the country with the existing laws. i'm going to do the same things. we'll go through the process like they are now perhaps with

more energy. >> i'm a problem solver. i will not disappoint those people. i will not find that. i know how to solve problems. >> reporter: so you see that donald trump said i'll do the same thing, follow the process we have now. that is not what i think most supporters of donald trump have been expecting. now, is this going to cost him support? i'm not sure it's going to drive away his existing supporters. they have bonded with him pretty strongly but fuels the arguments of critics made that policy doesn't mean very much to donald trump and can't take the words that come out of his mouth particularly seriously. >> in the same news cycle, john, a story of additional e-mails on the clinton side and some say links liabilities, the clinton foundation's paying for access and the server. what damaging is that? >> reporter: i think it's damaging if people can show that

her conduct as secretary of state was influenced by donors to the clinton foundation and the use of access by those donors. haven't seen that so far. we have seen people seeking meetings, come got them, some didn't. i think the real bang to this story is if somebody can show that hillary clinton's actions as secretary of state were influenced by it. >> john, i'm just wondering if you can give us an update on the congressional republicans that are up for re-election and just how much the trump effect is impacting them. i know rob portman, for instance, in a tough race in ohio and largely ignored donald trump. >> reporter: it is working for them to the extent he is leading. but everyone in a race for house and senate that's competitive is facing so long as donald trump is behind and he was down 8 points in our nbc/survey monkey poll this morning facing a drag of donald trump. now, people like rob portman,

toomey, ayotte trying to swim against that tide and some of them may succeed. but democrats have a lot of targets and republicans are increasingly concerned that they could lose the senate, see their margins narrowed in the house. >> getting interesting now. thank you very much. meanwhile, activist investor carl icahn said the archie bunkers of the world will support donald trump. bunker was the lead of the legendary 1970s sitcom "all in the family." we asked norman lear how it would play today. this is a clip of season two of "binge." >> how do you think archie plays today? just as an idea. >> there's no reason why it wouldn't play today. we were dealing with human problems. haven't gone away. >> i mean, on the one hand you have archie who is feeling alone

as these progressive ideas move along, right? >> right. >> gain traction. which, i mean, you think -- tell me if you think i'm wrong. speaks to a lot of how the country feels now. >> i couldn't agree with you more. he was not a hater. he was somebody who feared progress. >> what would you do differently? what would you do the same? >> hard to get it different. there couldn't be another archie bunker in my view or ed it bunker. those two people are so indelible in those roles. i think -- i think calling another actor or looking for another talent to play that role wouldn't be unfair to the actor. so indelible are they. but the reason for being or for, you know, doing it "all in the family" exists and will exist always. >> we'll have more of norman

lear next hour where he urges "binge" watchers to put down the phones. season two is streaming now on cnbc.com, apple tv, youtube and hulu. coming up in a couple of weeks, we'll talk to morgan freeman about the projects he has going on. interesting to see someone in their 90s reinvent themselves for the modern content distribution. >> unbelievable how active he is. yet he says -- draws the line at the phone. don't watch that way. >> did he weigh in on the archie bunker liking donald trump? >> we get to a lot of politics is a big part, of course, lear for years. >> amazing. look forward to it. thanks a lot. coming up, the future of twitter according to former ceo dick costolo joining us on "squawk alley" and the markets we are still up. we are within hailing distance of the record highs, s&p 500 just below that intraday high. a good car has to maneuver quickly.

that's also true of a good car company. people have always bought cars. but we saw an opportunity in sharing cars. so we moved fast and launched car2go in 29 cities, all around the world. doing that required dozens of data centers, designed for speed and performance. we built our business on the ibm cloud. because that's what the ibm cloud is built for.

after pfizer's big deal for medivation, are there other big opportunities? find out at tradingnation.cnbc.com.

s&p flirts with a record high. let's get over to the cme group. rick santelli has "the santelli exchange." rick? >> oh, home sales came in a lot better. like to welcome my special guest, john cochran. you just heard sara, it is all about growth. we need growth in the u.s. economy. we don't have growth. and the answer always seems to be more money equals more growth. i have 8 trillion reasons why that doesn't work. $8 trillion of new debt since the recession. the last stimulus was $787 billion. one of the candidates, hillary, this isn't about candidates,

they both want more infrastructure. she wants about 50 billion a year over 5 years. the student loan program alone, the portfolio, uncle sam has, is $1.3 trillion. huge amount of nonperforming loans. this alone is probably going to cost between $80 billion and $100 billion a year. it doesn't offset that. the where's the logic to any of this, john? >> well, logic? you certainly got the sales talk. and you're right. it is on both sides. mr. trump's stimulus and infrastructure plan only bigger and more beautiful than hillary's. the logic is that somehow by the government spending a whole lot of money and even wasting it somehow that's the key to growth. that's not what your grandmother told you. that's not what any common sense tells you. boy is that the idea of the moment, isn't it? >> it is. and, you know, down here, stimulus and i hate to say it but it's the reality i deal with, down here it's synonymous

of slush fund. you pointed it out. giving and taking money for the most inefficient deployment of funds, the government, just seems like a crazy idea. what are your thoughts on regulations in trade? you bring up in many of your writings at rags almost make efficient spending of stimulus and possible think davis bacon and in terms of the media, well, every reg is a good reg and anybody anti-trade has to be crazy. listen, there's good and bad regs and even though trade floats all boats, might be many ways to make trade fairer in the eyes of the u.s. what is wrong with those ideas? >> well, let's see. first point. yes. you know, now there's the big stimulus and infrastructure plans. i think economists have done a great disservice coating this idea that we can just waste money and that's good for the economy. we need infrastructure. but let's think about why we're not able to get infrastructure. it's hardly a new idea that

potholes and bridges and things to be fixed. poor president obama. he's been trying to spend money and can't get anything built in the u.s. today. >> he's been rather successful at spending the money. but yet, i don't look and see a new version of the hoover dam. i don't look and see a new version of air traffic control. that isn't in the analog age. where does this money go? >> right. well, it goes to a lot of lawyers and studies and the government mostly sends people checks. infrastructure is first inefficient. we don't build stuff with people and shovels anymore. we build stuff with machines. doesn't provide a lot of employment. it's good to have the infrastructure but to sell it as a growth program i think is a big mistake. >> i got you. john, thank you. i think if we had good growth the infrastructure would naturally follow. thank you for being our guest today. carl, back to you. >> thank you. when we come back, what's left behind in the lost and

found at a casino? our jane wells is on the case in los angeles. jane? >> so much stuff is left behind. california's largest casino is doubling the size and staff of the lost and found to of lost a reunite people like their glass eye, prosthetic leg and mom's ashes, when we come back.

experience breathtaking lexus performance in street-legal form. get great offers at the lexus golden opportunity sales event. get up to $5,000 customer cash on select 2016 models. ends september 5th. see your lexus dealer.

your business needs better technology to drive better performance. so you need it to be reliable and fast. really fast. introducing the comcast business summer savings event. fast internet speed to drive performance, plus cutting edge wifi for your employees and customers, and voice mobility so your calls find you wherever you are. get some of our most advanced products at a great price with over $500 in savings. call today and ask how to get these savings plus a $250 prepaid card. comcast business. built for business.

so what can you find in the lost and found? our jane wells investigated. she's live in l.a. with the answer. can't wait for this one, jane. >> well, sara, we always talk about the -- but pell changa is a huge casino in california, the gaming floor is actually larger that he many places in las vegas. it's operating at 100% capacity, in the middle of a $285 million expansion, which would include doubling the size and the staff of its lost and found. what? ich shelf reps a day. >> inside this room, they collect wet over 20,000 items a year, which they try to return. what kind of things?

quote -- if you can think it, we've seen it. >> we've had glass eyes turned in, we get walkers. karaoke machine, a hue filler. things you're not sure what they are. >> i've had the $9,000 ring that was left in the safe. >> any alcohol we get we have to dump. implts it's not unusual to have four or five bikes. >> i actually found the remains of his mother is someone's backpack. >> they had to call the coroner on that one. other things left behind include lots of sex toys. the women do like the detective work in figuring out who these things belong to and the joy it brings to the people when they're returned, like the family who got mom's ashes back. guys? >> i'm glad they got them back, but it sounds like an expensive

upkeep. >> the fact they have to -- tells yous lots of cell phones, a car key, and then sun glasses. how many have been lost? >> that says a lot. jane wells, mike actually predicted the prosthetic leg. ing. >> jane, thank you. over to john for now with what's coming up on "squawk alley." >> i wonder if anybody has left a tiger in their room. they are pretty unique, also best buy doing better than

expected. does that mean it's not just amazon in the hunt? and former twitter ceo will join us, all that hand more coming up on "squawk alley."

rally mode, the s&p 500 up four tens, that's good enough to flirt with a record high. >> oil turned positive, we're bouncing a bit. a lot of people talked about how calm the mark has been. but it seems like we've got a little energy. >> best buy certainly on fire, some of those shorts being squeezed according to traders, also better that 12.6% rise was also unexpected. this all leads us into the jan et yellen speech on friday. >> though the bond mark just a ten-year yield, just behavely up. >> it starks it to move the bond market. >> we'll see what happens. that does it for this hour. over to you, carl. >> thanks so much, guys. we're 8:00 a.m. at apple

headquarters, 11:00 a.m. on wall street, and "squawk alley" is live. ♪ welcome to "squawk alley" for a tuesday morning. jon fortt is live in san francisco. joining us inside.com founder and ceo jason kalakanis. the nasdaq hitten another all-time intraday high. really the story of this summer's rally. i wonder what younk